I have been more than a little backwards about coming forwards on this medium for the last couple of months. I could claim pressures of work; actually its readjusting to a world where cc#1 demands time that was otherwise spent ruminating. Goo-ing and ga-ing is not thought stimulating.
I have a weekend to myself and have lined-up a formidable reading list. It struck me as I waded through the FT’s interview with Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA that none of it was specifically Russia-related. Yes it has a link, there are two pieces from Jonathan Stern which are clearly related, if a little academically esoteric. The first on the interdependence between oil/fuel oil (mazut)/ and gas pricing in Europe (pdf warning) is obviously hugely relevant to the future of Russia’s earnings. The second of his pieces rehashes, with the benefit of some hindsight, the energy-security issues which the “Ukrainian affair” of January 2006 raised. Unless you have been brought here by a genuine interest in gas-pricing I would avoid the first. The second on energy-security is worth a read, if only to be able to dispel the scare-mongering of MSM.
I intend to try to address the issue of gas-pricing and the geo-politics of Turkmen gas in a longer piece, hopefully today, once I have got through some fascinating reading on best-practice governance for listed companies and a bunch of reading so that I can re-balance my portfolio away from the OECD and consumer spending.
You will be please to hear that I have no intention of adding my own thoughts to the peak-oil story as oil rapidly approaches its inflation all-time high of $110/bbl. Though I would recommend this piece form Jerome a Paris which I found in multiple places but this link is via The Oil Drum. In the two, or so, years I have been reading TOD, peak oil has gone from being seen as scare-mongering by tree-huggers to a reality. You can argue all you like about quantities of oil and energy still to be found and produced but the reality, acknowledged by the CEO’s of BP, Conoco and Total is that oil & gas production (supply) is less than demand. And will remain that way unless we hit a recession.
So why nothing on Russia? Frankly the politics are boring, if they exist at all. There are only so many times that you can harp on about inflation, and I have no intention of doing so today – except to thank the EBRD for their Transitional Report which confirms inflation at 8.5% for 2007 – blinding insight. Please declare yourselves irrelevant and dissolve. Where they do get it right is in their discussion of management skills which they conclude are hampering growth. I could not concur more fully.
I used to care who succeeded VVP. I don’t any longer. I just wish it were April 2008 already and we could carry on getting on with our lives and working out which Chinovniki were going to demand our hard-earned cash for doing nothing more than their jobs. If for no other reason than winter would be over and as more light enters our lives we can begin to dream of May holidays and summer days gorging on Italian food.
In the week which Sanford Bernstein says what everyone already knows, but is too frightened to say publicly; Shtockman will be late (and they are out by at least 5 years) and with Russia already running a gas deficit I can’t even face posting on a story that is universally ignored, but hugely important for Russia and Europe.
To be frank I can’t even bring myself to cover the raft of venture capital offerings that are springing up in the wake of the governments Israeli lookalike (but not really where it really matters) venture fund. Here’s a link on Troika’s efforts, if you really care.
So to comfort myself from the ennui, it’s time for another cup of coffee and one of the delights of Moscow – a Wolkonsky bun – truly world class.
