Lessons from Recent History

In the run up to Medvedev’s ascension to a position which may or may not be the ultimate power in Russia we were treated to a number of political analysts lecturing us on how there is only one boss in Russia and he is the man in power at the time.  They made for very dull articles which failed to keep me gripped to the very end. 

Now that we sort of know who the future will look like (short guys in expensive blue suits) it is time for a bit of reflecting on what the future will look like.

If these are imperfect thoughts blame the distraction of trying to stuff mush down the throat of cc#1. The dull articles were reviewing the wrong bit of history. 

My reference is 2000-2004.  The deal which brought Putin to power kept various members of the “Family” running the government.  Principal amongst them Misha “2%” Kasayanov (2% what a cheapskate) who ushered through the economic reforms which led to the popularity of the current bunch of economic illiterates.  It was only after 2004 that the Family were cleared out and the Siloviki entered in to the current land grab.

The deal that elevated Medvedev to the Presidency* will become clear over time, but my strong guess is that little will change anywhere near the top for a while**.  It does not matter whether Medvedev is a liberal or a modernizer he, or the Prime Minister, will have little ability to make real changes.

If the market should come to the same conclusions could someone let me know as I should take the profits of the rises in GAZP and NVTK now.  My opinion – more of the same.  Where the same is storing up problems for the sake of personal enrichment.

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