I have been struggling to come up with my take on 2008, and as we are already half way through January any thoughts are probably mostly useless at this point. Given that I have no idea what is going to happen here are my “greenspan-ian” thoughts on 2008.
Oil – Will trade between its bottom price and its top, with the average price being any number that you chose that best makes your point.
Gas – Will trade at about a 6 month lag to the price of oil and various oil products; unless, of course, it decouples, or Russia runs out or its gets very warm, or very cold, or both.
Presidential Election – Medvedev will win the Presidential election in the first round (which in itself be a blessing) unless of course he does not and someone else does. Someone else is currently not on the ballot.
Prime Minister – VVP will be appointed as Prime Minister (but will not ever be pictured getting told off by Medvedev) unless of course his agreeing to stand as Prime Minister was in the same vein as agreeing to head United Russia’s list. i.e. when push comes to shove, someone else will do it.
Inflation – Oh thank goodness, some reality. Inflation will be more than 10% p.a. actually a lot more. Some will argue that it does not matter. I think that it does.
US Presidential Election – Will be one by someone who is not G.W. Bush (aka “Junior” or the “blathering idiot”) and who was born a US citizen (its the law – ask Arnie). The winner will either be male or female and may even be black but will almost certainly be white. There remains a chance that the winner will disavow science in favour of “what the bible teaches.” I am looking forward to the right to selling his daughter and stoning his wife. That is unless we can whip up some Old Testament pestilence.
Stock Market – Global markets will be horrible and a good time to invest in traditionally defensive areas, such as tobacco (people keep smoking whatever the markets do) and hold US$ (the world’s reserve currency). Clearly emerging markets such as Russia should be avoided in favour of safe havens such as Merrill Lynch. OK so the world has been turned on its head; but be wary of those promising it will different this time. Long and short of it, buggered if I know where to put my money this year.
So that’s 2008 for you and there’s a pretty good chance that I will be right.
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My question: when will VVP televised scoldings of Medvedev occur? This scolding behavior is totally in character of VVP and should be part of your 2008 Prediction.